New Report: New York Utility Poised to Spend $550 Million Based on Gas Planning Assumptions Its Own Electric Forecast Contradicts
A report from Advanced Energy United and Current Energy Group finds New York ratepayers could be stuck paying for duplicative infrastructure investments
ALBANY, NY – A new report released today by Advanced Energy United and Current Energy Group finds that siloed gas and electric planning at New York utilities is creating major financial risk for customers — and could drive unnecessary utility spending as electrification accelerates statewide.
“When utilities plan gas and electric systems separately, customers can end up paying twice,” said Kristina Persaud, New York Policy Lead at Advanced Energy United. “That kind of disconnected planning can lead to duplicative infrastructure investments and the risk of stranded assets, driving up ratepayer energy costs today and into the future. This case study shows why New York needs integrated energy planning. When one utility is operating two wildly different futures, customers can end up with bills that are much higher than necessary.”
The report finds that National Grid is poised to spend approximately $550 million from 2025 to 2029 based on a gas customer growth forecast built on assumptions of stagnant electrification — even though the utility’s own electric forecast predicts a different future.
The case study identifies a significant disconnect between the utility’s gas and electric planning forecasts. While National Grid’s electric forecast anticipates rapid adoption of electric heating, its gas forecast assumes far fewer customers will switch to heat pumps.
“Our analysis shows that NiMo’s gas and electric forecasts use the same heat pump installation assumptions through 2025 but diverge starting in 2026. By 2030, the electric load forecast assumes more than 30,000 additional heat pump installations compared with the gas load forecast,” said Brad Cebulko, Partner at Current Energy Group. “The benefits of integrated energy planning, including procedural alignment, data sharing, centralized forecasting, alternatives to traditional infrastructure, and coordinated investments, make it a practical next step for dual-fuel utilities across the state to implement.”
The report finds:
- National Grid employs diverging assumptions about heat pump deployment across the gas and electric sides of the utility.
- By 2030, National Grid’s electric load forecast assumes over 30,000 more heat pump installations than the gas load forecast.
- If National Grid gas adopted the heat pump assumptions already used in its electric load forecast, the utility would project a 3% lower gas customer count by 2029 (15,000 fewer customers), compared to its current gas forecast.
- Despite this, National Grid forecasts spending approximately $550 million from 2025 to 2029 to support customer growth assumptions.