The Next Decade in PJM: A Path to Reliability and Affordability

Reliability and affordability are of paramount importance for PJM. Two paths lie ahead for the region: One in which primarily gas resources are deployed to meet rising load, and one in which policy change enables higher deployment of advanced energy resources (wind, solar and storage, demand flexibility resources, and advanced transmission technologies). 

A new analysis, conducted by Synapse Energy Economics for Advanced Energy United, analyzes these pathways from a reliability and cost perspective and finds that the difference for the 67 million people living within PJM is stark. 

• Increased deployment of advanced energy technologies in PJM reduces the expected frequency of outages in 2030 by 97 percent. 

• Increased deployment of advanced energy technologies in PJM reduces the number of customers affected by outages by 87 percent. 

• From 2025–2035, higher deployment of advanced energy technologies offers a cumulative cost savings of $178 billion, or 20 percent, relative to the Status Quo scenario (primarily gas resources). 

To assess the reliability of both resource portfolios over the next decade, Synapse conducted advance power sector capacity expansion and resource adequacy modeling. The reliability analysis focuses on bulk power system reliability. 

In the lower cost, more reliable scenario, the greater quantities of large-scale wind, solar and storage projects are built, reflecting assumptions of improvements to the interconnection queue process and permitting policies, as well as policies that promote the adoption of demand flexibility and advanced transmission technologies. Achieving this more reliable, lower-cost scenario in reality will require leaders of the 13 PJM states, and PJM itself, to take decisive action in the coming years.